May 2025

IZA DP No. 17902: Enrollment Declines and Permanent Closures in Public Schools

This study examines the prevalence of permanent school closures before and after the COVID-19 pandemic and their association with enrollment declines. Utilizing data from the Common Core of Data between 2013-14 and 2023-24, the analysis reveals a downward trend in closure rates, with significant variation across school characteristics and states. Poisson regression results indicate a strong association between recent enrollment declines and the likelihood of permanent closures. The findings underscore the financial and operational pressures faced by schools with declining enrollments and highlight the need for tailored policy responses to address the unique challenges of different communities.